Ottawa, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

353
FXUS63 KTOP 112250
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
550 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe storms this evening, with damaging wind
  gusts and large hail being the main hazards.

- Conditional risk for a severe storm or two Sunday, and
  Monday. Favorable environment each day but not expecting much
  if any storm development.

- Slightly better chance for severe storms Tuesday into Wednesday as
  the main upper trough moves through. Temperatures stay warm.

- Another system moves in around Friday, with more rain and
  storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Persistent thunderstorms overnight delivered a swath of heavy rain
across northern Kansas, with a narrow area of 3-7" resulting in
flooding across parts of Washington, Marshall, and Nemaha Counties.
These storms have weakened and moved off to the northeast, leaving
behind a more well-defined warm front roughly along I-70. This warm
front will gradually lift north through the afternoon, warming
temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s as clouds thin and winds
turn more southerly. The environment along the warm front looks to
be only weakly capped, with 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE and a veering wind
profile 30 kts of shear. Thus if a storm does develop in this area,
it conditionally would be in a good environment to be severe, with
large hail and damaging winds. If we do see anything, it will likely
develop over the next couple hours as a weak MCV seen on water vapor
imagery slides across the state. However convergence along the warm
front looks to remain weak, so confidence that we see any sustained
storm is low, around 15-20%. Farther south, forcing from the MCV may
allow for slightly greater storm potential. But shear is weaker away
from the warm front, which should generally keep storms from getting
too robust.

Conditional remains the theme for Sunday and Monday. We`ll have a
diffuse dryline set up towards central Kansas, with an unstable and
moderately sheared environment to its east. However with generally
neutral height falls and the diffuse nature of the dryline,
confidence in seeing any storms develop along the dryline is low.
Slightly better confidence in a cluster of storms farther east
across east-central KS mid-day Sunday, a remnant of tonight`s storms
farther southwest over TX/OK. These look to mostly sub-severe though.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, we should finally see the upper trough
lift northeast onto the Plains. Model guidance still shows some
variability with the exact timing, but overall we should see better
height falls as this occurs. Increasing shear with the mid-level
trough will overspread the area along with still steep mid-level
lapse rates. Details will remain dependent on the aforementioned
timing and track of the mid-level and surface features, but broadly
speaking severe weather potential looks highest these two days.

Behind this first system, we remain in southwest flow aloft for the
remainder of the week. Thursday looks to see a minimum in rain
chances as shortwave ridging moves overhead, followed by another
strong upper trough for Friday. Lots of uncertainty at this time
range, but increasing moisture advection ahead of a cold front will
lead to rain and storm chances increasing again Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Scattered showers and storms this evening weaken by 03z or so with
recent guidance suggesting some showers or storms moving towards
terminals from the west between 08-13z. Confidence in this scenario
is low given uncertainty in how any complex of storms evolves, so
kept mention out of TAFs. Another push of showers/storms moves across
east central Kansas Sunday morning through much of the day. Best chances
are southeast of KTOP/KFOE, but could extend far enough northwest
to impact these sites. Expect a period of MVFR cigs Sunday morning
before a return to VFR Sunday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Flanagan